Gazettabyte is asking industry figures for their thoughts after attending the recent 50th-anniversary OFC show in San Francisco. Here are the first contributions from Huawei’s Maxim Kuschnerov, NLM Photonics' Brad Booth, LightCounting’s Vladimir Kozlov, and Jürgen Hatheier, Chief Technology Officer, International, at Ciena.
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Maxim Kuschnerov, Director of R&D, Huawei
The excitement of last year's Nvidia’s Blackwell graphics processing unit (GPU) announcement has worn off, and there was a slight hangover at OFC from the market frenzy then.
The 224 gigabit-per-second (Gbps) opto-electronic signalling is reaching mainstream in the data centre. The last remaining question is how far VCSELs will go—30 m or perhaps even further. The clear focus of classical Ethernet data centre optics for scale-out architectures is on the step to 448Gbps-per-lane signalling, and it was great to see many feasibility demonstrations of optical signalling showing that PAM-4 and PAM-6 modulation schemes will be doable.
The show demonstrations either relied on thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) or the more compact indium-phosphide-based electro-absorption modulated lasers (EMLs), with thin-film lithium niobate having the higher overall optical bandwidth.
Higher bandwidth pure silicon Mach-Zehnder modulators have also been shown to work at a 160-175 gigabaud symbol rate, sufficient to enable PAM-6 but not high enough for PAM-4 modulation, which the industry prefers for the optical domain.
Since silicon photonics has been the workhorse at 224 gigabits per lane for parallel single-mode transceivers, a move away to thin-film lithium niobate would affect the density of the optics and make co-packaged optics more challenging.
With PAM-6 being the preferred modulation option in the electrical channel for 448 gigabit, it begs the question of whether the industry should spend more effort on enabling PAM-6 optical to kill two birds with one stone: enabling native signalling in the optical and electrical domains would open the door to all linear drive architectures, and keep the compact pure-silicon platform in the technology mix for optical modulators. Just as people like to say, "Never bet against copper," I'll add, "Silicon photonics isn't done until Chris Doerr says so."
If there was one topic hotter than the classical Ethernet evolution, it was the scale-up domain for AI compute architectures. The industry has gone from scale-up in a server to a rack-level scale-up based on a copper backplane. But future growth will eventually require optics.
While the big data centre operators have yet to reach a conclusion about the specifications of density, reach, or power, it is clear that such optics must be disruptive to challenge the classical Ethernet layer, especially in terms of cost.
Silicon photonics appears to be the preferred platform for a potential scale-up, but some vendors are also considering VCSEL arrays. The challenge of merging optics onto the silicon interposer along with the xPU is a disadvantage for VCSELs in terms of tolerance to high-temperature environments.
Reliability is always discussed when discussing integrated optics, and several studies were presented showing that optical chips hardly ever fail. After years of discussing how unreliable lasers seem, it's time to shift the blame to electronics.
But before the market can reasonably attack optical input-output for scale-up, it has to be seen what the adoption speed of co-packaged optics will be. Until then, linear pluggable optics (LPO) or linear retimed optics (LRO) pluggables will be fair game in scaling up AI 'pods' stuffed with GPUs.
Brad Booth, CEO of NLM Photonics
At OFC, the current excitement in the photonics industry was evident due to the growth in AI and quantum technologies. Many of the industry’s companies were represented at the trade show, and attendance was excellent.
Nvidia’s jump on the co-packaged optics bandwagon has tipped the scales in favour of the industry rethinking networking and optics.
What surprised me at OFC was the hype around thin-film lithium niobate. I’m always concerned when I don’t understand why the hype is so large, yet I have still to see the material being adopted in the datacom industry.
Vladimir Kozlov, CEO of LightCounting
This year’s OFC was a turning point for the industry, a mix of excitement and concern for the future. The timing of the tariffs announced during the show made the event even more memorable.
This period might prove to be a peak of the economic boom enabled by several decades of globalisation. It may also be the peak in the power of global companies like Google and Meta and their impact on our industry.
More turbulence should be expected, but new technologies will find their way to the market.
Progress is like a flood. It flows around and over barriers, no matter what they are. The last 25 years of our industry is a great case study.
We are now off for another wild ride, but I look forward to OFC 2050.
Jürgen Hatheier, Chief Technology Officer, International, at Ciena
This was my first trip to OFC, and I was blown away. What an incredible showcase of the industry’s most innovative technology
One takeaway is how AI is creating a transformative effect on our industry, much like the cloud did 10 years ago and smartphones did 20 years ago.
This is an unsurprising observation. However, many outside our industry do not realise the critical importance of optical technology and its role in the underlying communication network. While most of the buzz has been on new AI data centre builds and services, the underlying network has, until recently, been something of an afterthought.
All the advanced demonstrations and technical discussions at OFC emphasise that AI would not be possible without high-performance network infrastructure.
There is a massive opportunity for the optical industry, with innovation accelerating and networking capacity scaling up far beyond the confines of the data centre.
The nature of AI — its need for intensive training, real-time inferencing at the edge, and the constant movement of data across vast distances between data centres — means that networks are evolving at pace. We’re seeing a significant architectural shift toward more agile, scalable, and intelligent infrastructure with networks that can adapt dynamically to AI's distributed, data-hungry nature.
The diversity of optical innovation presented at the conference ranged from futuristic Quantum technologies to technology on the cusp of mainstream adoption, such as 448-gigabit electrical lanes.
The increased activity and development around high-speed pluggables also show how critical coherent optics has become for the world’s most prominent computing players.